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GasBuddy preparing autumn/winter gas price forecast

GasBuddy Blog -- If you've been asking where gasoline prices will be going this autumn and winter, you aren't alone. In fact, so many are asking, that we're posting this publicly to let everyone know that we are, yes, working on a late-2012 gasoline price forecast, and do expect it to be complete in the near future.

Many are also asking what goes into making a forecast, and how analysis of such is possible. I'll seek to answer a bit of how I forecast gasoline prices.

First, experience and past history comes in to play. Before making a forecast, I pour over my past forecasts to see how they played out. How close were we to previous forecasts. Looking at our summer gasoline forecast, which was released in January, we had many of the numbers...

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Submitted Jun 28, 2012 By: PD

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AReed77 Rookie Author Texas Posts:3 Points:815 Joined:Aug 2012	Message Posted: Aug 15, 2012 4:28:44 PM Ignore AReed77 Report Abuse Cool
Donatelo Champion Author Dayton Posts:1,118 Points:291,825 Joined:Apr 2011	Message Posted: Aug 15, 2012 12:00:52 PM Ignore Donatelo Report Abuse ok
ZeroBoxes Champion Author Mississippi Posts:1,069 Points:210,640 Joined:Apr 2012	Message Posted: Aug 15, 2012 9:26:06 AM Ignore ZeroBoxes Report Abuse I too am in the forecast business of prices and I'm using a weighted average model based on 5-year weekly historic variance-averages focused on thesis results of +/-15 cents. Numbers can be your firends.. and yes, I like Pi!
pfone1847 Champion Author Illinois Posts:3,181 Points:622,605 Joined:Oct 2010	Message Posted: Aug 15, 2012 4:28:40 AM Ignore pfone1847 Report Abuse Good deal
txrojo2005 All-Star Author Austin Posts:763 Points:477,920 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: Aug 14, 2012 3:36:09 PM Ignore txrojo2005 Report Abuse Thank you
Donatelo Champion Author Dayton Posts:1,118 Points:291,825 Joined:Apr 2011	Message Posted: Aug 14, 2012 2:54:24 PM Ignore Donatelo Report Abuse ok
StArrow68 Champion Author Oakland Posts:3,248 Points:1,359,360 Joined:Apr 2003	Message Posted: Aug 14, 2012 12:22:48 PM Ignore StArrow68 Report Abuse Used to be that markets were linked to crude, now local factors seem to drive spikes.
DesertRat2011 Champion Author Riverside Posts:3,607 Points:483,855 Joined:Jun 2011	Message Posted: Aug 14, 2012 10:27:53 AM Ignore DesertRat2011 Report Abuse Not flirting with record highs........ would you like to change that guess now ?
stonecold5005 All-Star Author Waco Posts:817 Points:20,240 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: Jul 14, 2012 9:23:36 AM Ignore stonecold5005 Report Abuse ok
stonecold5005 All-Star Author Waco Posts:817 Points:20,240 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: Jul 12, 2012 8:12:30 AM Ignore stonecold5005 Report Abuse ok
stonecold5005 All-Star Author Waco Posts:817 Points:20,240 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: Jul 11, 2012 7:53:40 AM Ignore stonecold5005 Report Abuse ok
stonecold5005 All-Star Author Waco Posts:817 Points:20,240 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: Jul 10, 2012 9:28:06 AM Ignore stonecold5005 Report Abuse ok
stonecold5005 All-Star Author Waco Posts:817 Points:20,240 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: Jul 9, 2012 9:14:04 AM Ignore stonecold5005 Report Abuse ok
albert2008 Champion Author Winnipeg Posts:7,342 Points:1,479,060 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Jul 9, 2012 8:42:42 AM Ignore albert2008 Report Abuse hurry up
Donatelo Champion Author Dayton Posts:1,118 Points:291,825 Joined:Apr 2011	Message Posted: Jul 9, 2012 7:42:15 AM Ignore Donatelo Report Abuse ok
marlene79 Rookie Author Rochester Posts:2 Points:525 Joined:Jul 2012	Message Posted: Jul 8, 2012 9:59:03 AM Ignore marlene79 Report Abuse ok
albert2008 Champion Author Winnipeg Posts:7,342 Points:1,479,060 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Jul 8, 2012 9:46:31 AM Ignore albert2008 Report Abuse get it done
Donatelo Champion Author Dayton Posts:1,118 Points:291,825 Joined:Apr 2011	Message Posted: Jul 8, 2012 8:56:49 AM Ignore Donatelo Report Abuse ok
exyouen Veteran Author Philadelphia Posts:309 Points:400,965 Joined:Jul 2011	Message Posted: Jul 7, 2012 6:43:38 PM Ignore exyouen Report Abuse you can't predict the future
stonecold5005 All-Star Author Waco Posts:817 Points:20,240 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: Jul 4, 2012 5:34:17 PM Ignore stonecold5005 Report Abuse ok
stonecold5005 All-Star Author Waco Posts:817 Points:20,240 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: Jul 3, 2012 9:24:57 AM Ignore stonecold5005 Report Abuse ok
Donatelo Champion Author Dayton Posts:1,118 Points:291,825 Joined:Apr 2011	Message Posted: Jul 2, 2012 7:47:27 PM Ignore Donatelo Report Abuse ok
albert2008 Champion Author Winnipeg Posts:7,342 Points:1,479,060 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Jul 2, 2012 8:54:39 AM Ignore albert2008 Report Abuse well we will see
Ray_10589 Champion Author New York Posts:4,941 Points:1,182,010 Joined:May 2009	Message Posted: Jul 1, 2012 10:55:38 PM Ignore Ray_10589 Report Abuse too early to predict ...
albert2008 Champion Author Winnipeg Posts:7,342 Points:1,479,060 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Jul 1, 2012 11:04:14 AM Ignore albert2008 Report Abuse hurry up
carenBC Rookie Author Vancouver Posts:29 Points:7,020 Joined:Jun 2012	Message Posted: Jul 1, 2012 7:54:29 AM Ignore carenBC Report Abuse My Guess is up as usual
honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:18,609 Points:1,608,545 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Jul 1, 2012 12:01:00 AM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse still human, only human...
Canucktree Champion Author Alberta Posts:4,886 Points:1,018,675 Joined:Dec 2008	Message Posted: Jun 30, 2012 10:04:04 AM Ignore Canucktree Report Abuse Nifty
albert2008 Champion Author Winnipeg Posts:7,342 Points:1,479,060 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Jun 30, 2012 9:56:38 AM Ignore albert2008 Report Abuse get busy
honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:18,609 Points:1,608,545 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Jun 30, 2012 7:23:29 AM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse still currently dropping, but then, so were the prices last year.
Sampson20 Rookie Author Florida Posts:14 Points:7,330 Joined:Jun 2012	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 10:59:46 PM Ignore Sampson20 Report Abuse Too many influences. When something is driven not by supply and demand but by speculation and political whims it isn't bound by logic or equations.
adr47 Champion Author Saskatchewan Posts:5,667 Points:1,178,750 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 8:51:13 PM Ignore adr47 Report Abuse UP Greed Rules
regasaz Champion Author Phoenix Posts:5,775 Points:1,280,880 Joined:Dec 2006	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 4:06:56 PM Ignore regasaz Report Abuse Time to top off your tanks today...... looks like UP is in the future.
cowboy1ttu Champion Author Lubbock Posts:17,920 Points:2,673,710 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 2:11:36 PM Ignore cowboy1ttu Report Abuse I forecast at around 8 this morning on here that prices would go up. Well right now oil is up over $6 a barrel. Gas prices sure won't go down with this oil rise so I guess I'm a psychic.
ciimike Champion Author Nevada Posts:4,638 Points:1,062,060 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 2:05:51 PM Ignore ciimike Report Abuse With the volatile economy and political structures in the world, a best guess is all one can hope for.
gumbyrex Champion Author Fresno Posts:3,291 Points:757,340 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 1:50:42 PM Ignore gumbyrex Report Abuse Can't wait to see the forcast. Don't worry, we won't hold you to it.
CPGas1815 Champion Author Michigan Posts:6,027 Points:1,099,605 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 1:13:13 PM Ignore CPGas1815 Report Abuse Buy gas now! The commodity exchange price of gasoline is up almost 8 cents per gallon today and is rising even more as a write this alert.
hibsaw Champion Author Mississippi Posts:8,032 Points:1,680,015 Joined:Feb 2008	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 1:10:44 PM Ignore hibsaw Report Abuse Good luck PD. That will be a tough job. We won't fire you if you miss badly.
Spankster85 Champion Author Chicago Posts:1,719 Points:355,115 Joined:Nov 2011	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 1:10:36 PM Ignore Spankster85 Report Abuse Take a guess...
crep1291 Champion Author Ottawa Posts:2,576 Points:480,635 Joined:Dec 2010	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 1:07:36 PM Ignore crep1291 Report Abuse Perhaps if you were to give us probabilistic curves (or at least an average and standard deviation), that would be more helpful than a single one-off prediction.
radiorumor Champion Author Texas Posts:2,802 Points:752,660 Joined:Feb 2011	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 1:04:17 PM Ignore radiorumor Report Abuse I can tell you it won’t be $1.75 without any figuring and that comes from experience and past history too.
amayne11 Champion Author Vancouver Posts:1,748 Points:497,965 Joined:Nov 2011	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 1:03:33 PM Ignore amayne11 Report Abuse I hope the future gas prices are low or lower, but I would rather have a job with high gas prices then no job with low gas prices.
adgam Champion Author Orange County Posts:2,262 Points:500,880 Joined:Nov 2011	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 1:02:05 PM Ignore adgam Report Abuse kk
LVNV6ofSpades Champion Author Las Vegas Posts:1,624 Points:362,260 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 1:02:02 PM Ignore LVNV6ofSpades Report Abuse Gas prices will continue to fall til Election Day then skyrocket back up. Been that way for the last few cycles it seems.
cheli2010 All-Star Author Twin Cities Posts:621 Points:285,535 Joined:Mar 2010	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 1:01:58 PM Ignore cheli2010 Report Abuse it is all just speculation.. bottom line they will charge what they will charge to make a profit.
misterray Champion Author Oregon Posts:3,178 Points:721,865 Joined:Aug 2008	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 12:58:34 PM Ignore misterray Report Abuse Don't be stupid—President Obama doesn't set gasoline prices—the oil companies do.
myambro Champion Author Sacramento Posts:3,199 Points:1,051,200 Joined:Mar 2005	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 12:57:44 PM Ignore myambro Report Abuse hmmmmm...
AuburnTim Champion Author Indiana Posts:6,828 Points:1,559,190 Joined:May 2005	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 12:57:27 PM Ignore AuburnTim Report Abuse K
s90201 Rookie Author Long Island Posts:57 Points:17,215 Joined:Jun 2012	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 12:55:36 PM Ignore s90201 Report Abuse Ok
MotoDad Champion Author Phoenix Posts:1,106 Points:812,015 Joined:Sep 2006	Message Posted: Jun 29, 2012 12:55:20 PM Ignore MotoDad Report Abuse A stab in the dark